[menog] Asia-Pacific IPv4 address depletion, Middle East next

Owen DeLong owend at he.net
Sat Apr 16 14:18:05 GMT 2011

I don't think that is accurate at all.

1.	As soon as anyone is out and forced to start deploying customers without
	native IPv4 (if said customers have IPv4 at all, it's through LSN/DS-Lite/NAT64)
	you have a situation where the user experience for your customers trying to
	reach those customers is degraded if you aren't providing IPv6.

2.	It will take most network operators at least 6 months and probably more like
	18 months to get from starting to deploy IPv6 on their backbones to being
	able to roll it out to the majority of their customers. Arguably if there's 6
	months until you have to have IPv6 to your customers, you needed to start
	12 months ago just to be on schedule.

3.	I expect RIPE will be the next RIR to run out. I expect they will run out
	probably around June or July. That's not 6 months and that's where
	most of the middle east gets their addresses.

4.	I'm not sure what you mean by "we are the last". I'm not familiar enough
	with your network to apply the proper context, so, perhaps in some way
	you may have 6 months before you face it in your own environment, but,
	what about your user's ability to reach other environments and/or the
	ability for users in other environments to have a good experience
	reaching yours?

5.	The organization who gets the last allocation in each RIR has a slight advantage
	over all the organizations who were in line behind them because they have
	enough IPv4 addresses to meet their needs for some (limited) amount
	of time whereas the others have no supply of addresses available to them.
	Using that advantage as an excuse to delay your IPv6 deployment is,
	IMHO, both short-sighted and self-destructive.


On Apr 16, 2011, at 6:53 AM, Lu Heng wrote:

> well, we are the last, we still have another 6 month to go before face it, correct me if I was wrong.
> On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 2:56 PM, Owen DeLong <owend at he.net> wrote:
> Well said.
> Owen
> On Apr 16, 2011, at 2:06 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote:
>> Dear colleagues,
>> APNIC, the IP address registry for the region stretching from Pakistan to Japan and down to Australia/NZ, announced yesterday it has reached the final /8 IPv4 address block, which is practical IPv4 depletion for most ISPs.
>> From now on APNIC will highly restrict the amounts of IPv4 addresses it issues, with ONLY one block 1024 addresses per ISP, and this will be the last IPv4 address block given to each ISP.
>> Expect IPv6 only services to start come up, so even if you have enough IPv4 addresses or thinking of implementing an IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT in your network, you will still need to start IPv6 migration all the way to the subscribers.
>> The Middle East's address registry, RIPE NCC, is expected to reach a similar situation soon when RIPE reaches its final /8.
>> Best Regards,
>> -Ahmed
>> Ahmed Abu-Abed, P.Eng.
>> VP, IPv6 Forum Jordan
>> GSM +962 777 669 100
>> www.ipv6forum.org
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> Kind regards.
> Lu
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