[menog] Asia-Pacific IPv4 address depletion, Middle East next

[Owen DeLong]

Ripe has 3.93. AfriNIC has 3.92, LACNIC has 3.94, and ARIN has 8+.

Given that, combined with the likely portability of APNIC demand to the
RIPE region, I don't think RiPE community is last, I think you are next.

(I think APNIC demand will also be somewhat portable to ARIN region
as well and accelerate consumption there).

Pure IPv6 may or may not be practical, but, the reality is that if you can't
get IPv4, you don't really have a lot of choices. Frankly, I agree that
deprecating IPv4 will probably not start until at least 2015. That's not
what this is about. What this is about is what portion of continued
and sustained internet growth can include real IPv4 connectivity
and for how long.

There's a wall right in front of us. We're continuing to step harder on the
gas pedal and lots of people seem to be pretending the wall isn't there
just because it disappears when they close their eyes.

IPv6 is fairly easy to deploy along side IPv4. Yes, there are issues, but,
the sonner you deploy IPv6, the fewer issues you will have and the sooner
you will get them identified and resolved.

Owen

On Apr 16, 2011, at 8:40 AM, Lu Heng wrote:

> Hi...."we" means RIPE community.http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html. It shows RIPE still have 4 /8 at this moment. While it still has second most amount RIRs.
> 
> IPv6 was not that easy, pure IPv6 environment is still not practical at this time, as small ISP, we tested just few days ago with pure IPv6 with few customers, but the thing is, it just not practical in the real world now.  Many discussion around how and when IPv4 will become history, most of my college would agree later 2015 as earliest.
> 
> 
> 
> On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 4:18 PM, Owen DeLong <owend at he.net> wrote:
> I don't think that is accurate at all.
> 
> 1.	As soon as anyone is out and forced to start deploying customers without
> 	native IPv4 (if said customers have IPv4 at all, it's through LSN/DS-Lite/NAT64)
> 	you have a situation where the user experience for your customers trying to
> 	reach those customers is degraded if you aren't providing IPv6.
> 
> 2.	It will take most network operators at least 6 months and probably more like
> 	18 months to get from starting to deploy IPv6 on their backbones to being
> 	able to roll it out to the majority of their customers. Arguably if there's 6
> 	months until you have to have IPv6 to your customers, you needed to start
> 	12 months ago just to be on schedule.
> 
> 3.	I expect RIPE will be the next RIR to run out. I expect they will run out
> 	probably around June or July. That's not 6 months and that's where
> 	most of the middle east gets their addresses.
> 
> 4.	I'm not sure what you mean by "we are the last". I'm not familiar enough
> 	with your network to apply the proper context, so, perhaps in some way
> 	you may have 6 months before you face it in your own environment, but,
> 	what about your user's ability to reach other environments and/or the
> 	ability for users in other environments to have a good experience
> 	reaching yours?
> 
> 5.	The organization who gets the last allocation in each RIR has a slight advantage
> 	over all the organizations who were in line behind them because they have
> 	enough IPv4 addresses to meet their needs for some (limited) amount
> 	of time whereas the others have no supply of addresses available to them.
> 	Using that advantage as an excuse to delay your IPv6 deployment is,
> 	IMHO, both short-sighted and self-destructive.
> 
> Owen
> 
> On Apr 16, 2011, at 6:53 AM, Lu Heng wrote:
> 
>> well, we are the last, we still have another 6 month to go before face it, correct me if I was wrong.
>> 
>> On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 2:56 PM, Owen DeLong <owend at he.net> wrote:
>> Well said.
>> 
>> Owen
>> 
>> On Apr 16, 2011, at 2:06 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote:
>> 
>>> Dear colleagues,
>>>  
>>> APNIC, the IP address registry for the region stretching from Pakistan to Japan and down to Australia/NZ, announced yesterday it has reached the final /8 IPv4 address block, which is practical IPv4 depletion for most ISPs.
>>>  
>>> From now on APNIC will highly restrict the amounts of IPv4 addresses it issues, with ONLY one block 1024 addresses per ISP, and this will be the last IPv4 address block given to each ISP.
>>>  
>>> Expect IPv6 only services to start come up, so even if you have enough IPv4 addresses or thinking of implementing an IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT in your network, you will still need to start IPv6 migration all the way to the subscribers.
>>>  
>>> The Middle East's address registry, RIPE NCC, is expected to reach a similar situation soon when RIPE reaches its final /8.
>>>  
>>> Best Regards,
>>> -Ahmed
>>>  
>>> Ahmed Abu-Abed, P.Eng.
>>> VP, IPv6 Forum Jordan
>>> GSM +962 777 669 100
>>> www.ipv6forum.org
>>>  
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Menog mailing list
>>> Menog at menog.net
>>> http://lists.menog.net/mailman/listinfo/menog
>> 
>> 
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>> 
>> 
>> -- 
>> --
>> Kind regards.
>> 
>> Lu
>> 
>> 
>> This message is a private communication. It may contain information that is privileged or confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not read, copy, or use it, and do not disclose it to others. Please notify the sender of the delivery error by replying to this message, and then delete it and any attachments from your system. Use of this e-mail is prohibited when received in error. Thank you.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> --
> Kind regards.
> 
> Lu
> 
> 
> This message is a private communication. It may contain information that is privileged or confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not read, copy, or use it, and do not disclose it to others. Please notify the sender of the delivery error by replying to this message, and then delete it and any attachments from your system. Use of this e-mail is prohibited when received in error. Thank you.

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