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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>> <FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d size=3>ADSL
is the easier choice for operators [for IPTV]. I don’t think
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d size=3>> it
makes it the best though</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>Well, if it works .... and, particularly,
if it is cost effective ....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>Making money (actually, profit) is an
important consideration for at least the North American operators. Having
to recover the cost of laying new fiber for PON will be a big drag in
profit. Futuristic (not sure what) services that *may* increase
revenue years down the road will not be convincing to investors -
particularly those who have heard that story many times before, and those
who focus on quarterly financial result.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>BTW: Any future new service must be
able to get *new and additional* revenue from their customers in order to repay
the up front cost of deploying new optical network. Having existing
services (e.g. the triple play of voice, video and data) move from copper
to the new cable plant will not get you more money since the customers are
aready paying the same amount. Even if one can dream up really new
bandwidth consuming application, </FONT><FONT face=Calibri
color=#1f497d>the question is how much more will consumer be willing to pay
over and above what they are already paying. My own communication related
bills are already pretty high at over $300 a month!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>> My view is that always, provide the
bandwidth, and customer </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>> will find a use for it. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>That may be the case with business
customers but not for consumer customers. Countries like Korea, Hong Kong
etc. have affordable and very high bandwidth (including extensive amount of
100Mbps) services to their consumers for a long time. However, in
practice, their consumer customer's Internet experience (including those
media intensive one such as YouTube etc.) are virtually *no*
different from what I am getting at home with generic aDSL ... as in once
you take away the hypes, they have no real applications that really takes
advantage of those high bandwidth capability.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>[On a somewhat related front, the
countries that make all the HD TV set, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China have
little or no HD programming. Basically, they ends up paying more for the
HD set but mostly get either distorted images or ugly side bars from the
mostly (or all) SD broadcast. Another example of potential vs reality
mismatch.] </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>Best regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d>John</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri color=#1f497d></FONT> </DIV>
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=fahad@2connectbahrain.com
href="mailto:fahad@2connectbahrain.com">Fahad AlShirawi</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=leong@qatar.cmu.edu
href="mailto:leong@qatar.cmu.edu">'John Leong'</A> ; <A
title=SMANNAI@qtel.com.qa href="mailto:SMANNAI@qtel.com.qa">'Salman
Al-Mannai'</A> ; <A title=menog@menog.net
href="mailto:menog@menog.net">menog@menog.net</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 16, 2007 1:59
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [menog] PON</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'">True
True ;) But the costs of running and maintaining ADSL2 vs PON? Although, PON
being a new(er) technology and ADSL2 being easily deployed on old
infrastructure means that ADSL is the easier choice for operators. I don’t
think it makes it the best though. My view is that always, provide the
bandwidth, and customer will find a use for it. Let me give an example, in our
region, the majority of the banking industry is on 512kbps IPLCs. DS3s and
STM1s are for a select few and even those wince at the cost. Reason: Bandwidth
is limited so competition is limited and the users today who aren’t using DS3s
and STM1s can’t even imagine what the bandwidth can be used for.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'">We
have had a particular financial institution use us for the last three years.
When they used us, 128kbps was enough for them. Today, they are up to about
12mbps with no end to their demand in sight. They’ll soon reach the STM1
state, I am sure. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'">The
same is true for the Home. Deliver, and watch the usage
increase.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'">Fahad.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
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style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
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style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri','sans-serif'"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<DIV>
<DIV
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<P class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Tahoma','sans-serif'">From:</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Tahoma','sans-serif'"> John Leong
[mailto:leong@qatar.cmu.edu] <BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August 16, 2007 2:23
AM<BR><B>To:</B> Salman Al-Mannai; Fahad AlShirawi;
menog@menog.net<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [menog]
PON<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'">> </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">once achieved, then the possibilities are open: IPTV
in HD mode </SPAN><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">> (of course this what
would first strike any bodys mind), and so on.</SPAN><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">BTW: IPTV is
specifically designed, even for HD, to work well with ADSL2+ and does not
*not* require FTTH. Indeed, most, if not all, US telecos deploying IPTV
today do so over copper.</SPAN><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'">Best
regards,</SPAN><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'">John</SPAN><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial
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