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<title>RE: [menog] PON</title>
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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Absolutely. If the norm is DSL and there are no new networks
being dug, then why invest in FTTH, PON or no PON. Only for us, we are putting
a new network and copper costs pretty much as much as fiber. Standard FTTH would
be more expensive of course because of the network elements, but PON brings
this investment down. It is actually more cost effective to put in PON for us
than it is to install DSL. More importantly, with this type of Bandwidth: Watch
out Incumbent.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>;)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Fahad.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> John Leong
[mailto:leong@qatar.cmu.edu] <br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, August 17, 2007 3:34 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Fahad AlShirawi; 'Salman Al-Mannai'; menog@menog.net<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [menog] PON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>>
</span><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>ADSL is
the easier choice for operators [for IPTV]. I don’t think </span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>
it makes it the best though</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Well,
if it works .... and, particularly, if it is cost effective ....</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Making
money (actually, profit) is an important consideration for at least the North
American operators. Having to recover the cost of laying new fiber for
PON will be a big drag in profit. Futuristic (not sure what) services
that *may* increase revenue years down the road will not
be convincing to investors - particularly those who have heard that story
many times before, and those who focus on quarterly financial result.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>BTW:
Any future new service must be able to get *new and additional* revenue from
their customers in order to repay the up front cost of deploying new optical
network. Having existing services (e.g. the triple play of voice, video
and data) move from copper to the new cable plant will not get you
more money since the customers are aready paying the same
amount. Even if one can dream up really new bandwidth consuming
application, the question is how much more will consumer
be willing to pay over and above what they are already paying. My
own communication related bills are already pretty high at over $300
a month!</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
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<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>
My view is that always, provide the bandwidth, and customer </span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>
will find a use for it. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>That
may be the case with business customers but not for consumer customers.
Countries like Korea, Hong Kong etc. have affordable and very high bandwidth
(including extensive amount of 100Mbps) services to their consumers for a long
time. However, in practice, their consumer customer's Internet
experience (including those media intensive one such as YouTube etc.) are
virtually *no* different from what I am getting at home with generic aDSL
... as in once you take away the hypes, they have no real applications that
really takes advantage of those high bandwidth capability.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
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<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>[On
a somewhat related front, the countries that make all the HD TV set, Korea,
Japan, Taiwan and China have little or no HD programming. Basically,
they ends up paying more for the HD set but mostly get either distorted
images or ugly side bars from the mostly (or all) SD broadcast. Another
example of potential vs reality mismatch.] </span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Best
regards,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>John</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt;
margin-left:3.75pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>-----
Original Message ----- <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='background:#E4E4E4'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <a href="mailto:fahad@2connectbahrain.com"
title="fahad@2connectbahrain.com">Fahad AlShirawi</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>To:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <a
href="mailto:leong@qatar.cmu.edu" title="leong@qatar.cmu.edu">'John Leong'</a>
; <a href="mailto:SMANNAI@qtel.com.qa" title="SMANNAI@qtel.com.qa">'Salman
Al-Mannai'</a> ; <a href="mailto:menog@menog.net" title="menog@menog.net">menog@menog.net</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Sent:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> Thursday, August 16,
2007 1:59 AM<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Subject:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> RE: [menog] PON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>True True ;) But the costs of running and maintaining ADSL2 vs
PON? Although, PON being a new(er) technology and ADSL2 being easily deployed
on old infrastructure means that ADSL is the easier choice for operators. I
don’t think it makes it the best though. My view is that always, provide the
bandwidth, and customer will find a use for it. Let me give an example, in our
region, the majority of the banking industry is on 512kbps IPLCs. DS3s and
STM1s are for a select few and even those wince at the cost. Reason: Bandwidth
is limited so competition is limited and the users today who aren’t using DS3s
and STM1s can’t even imagine what the bandwidth can be used for. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>We have had a particular financial institution use us for the
last three years. When they used us, 128kbps was enough for them. Today, they
are up to about 12mbps with no end to their demand in sight. They’ll soon reach
the STM1 state, I am sure. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>The same is true for the Home. Deliver, and watch the usage
increase.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Fahad.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> John Leong
[mailto:leong@qatar.cmu.edu] <br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, August 16, 2007 2:23 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Salman Al-Mannai; Fahad AlShirawi; menog@menog.net<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [menog] PON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>>
</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>once achieved, then the possibilities are
open: IPTV in HD mode </span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>> (of course this what would
first strike any bodys mind), and so on.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>BTW: IPTV is
specifically designed, even for HD, to work well with ADSL2+ and does not *not*
require FTTH. Indeed, most, if not all, US telecos deploying IPTV today
do so over copper.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Best
regards,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>John</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</blockquote>
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