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<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Hi Remco,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Thanks for your feedback. No one is sure yet how
long RIPE NCC will have v4 address blocks; it’s a matter of speculation and
depends on factors that we have not yet gone thru before (last minute rush,
increase in uptake rate due to LTE, etc.). But we can predict the IANA
depletion date, hence my message.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>For the 4 countries you mention the utilization rate
varies from 75% to 92%, with the highest being for the Netherlands. So
there will be demand for limited resources within RIPE. Unfortunately there is
no way to predict the depletion on a country by country basis (no framework
exists for collecting and sharing LIR data for address block utilization as
far as I know ), but all indications/predictions I have seen say RIR
depletion should be by 2012, and probably as early as the first
half.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>As for the IPv6 resources discussion at the RIPE
meeting, having an address block and connectivity is a step in the right
direction. But these are the easier parts of the transition, while enabling the
core, edge and access, then providing the v6 service (without the need of a
public v4 address), plus porting the applications, needs a lot more work and
time. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>If the ability to offer IPv6 native access (and coexist
with v4 using private v4 addresses) can be measured by the RIR then this will be
a more accurate prediction of readiness. A large US based ISP recently
mentioned, publicly, that it took them over 4 years to work on v6
transition to get to a stage to offer native IPv6 access trials.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>-Ahmed</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt Tahoma">
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #f5f5f5">
<DIV style="font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=remco.vanmook@gmail.com
href="mailto:remco.vanmook@gmail.com">remco van mook</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, May 18, 2010 10:52 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=ahmed@tamkien.com href="mailto:ahmed@tamkien.com">Ahmed
Abu-Abed</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Cc:</B> <A title=menog@menog.net
href="mailto:menog@menog. net">menog@menog. net</A> ; <A
title=IPv6Jordan@ipv6forum.com
href="mailto:IPv6Jordan@ipv6forum.com">IPv6jordan</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [menog] IPv4 depletion update</DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Dear Ahmed,
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I think you're reading this the wrong way. The amount of allocated IPv4
space per country is not a fixed number, but rather an aggregation of the blocks
of space that have so far been allocated to the different ISPs inside of a
country. Since we've not run out of IPv4 space, and it's likely that the
RIPE NCC will have space for at least 2 more years, that number doesn't really
reflect anything else than a very commendable utilization rate of the resources
allocated so far. On top of that, particularly the US and Japan numbers are
skewed in a huge way because of the way IPv4 addresses were distributed until
about 1995 (remember classfull routing?). Comparing numbers with for example
France, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands would give you a far more
apples-to-apples comparison.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I fully agree more action is called for when it comes to deploying IPv6 in
the Middle East, but the simple graph that describes this was used at the RIPE
meeting two weeks ago - it shows the percentage of ISPs per country that have
IPv6 resources, and what percentage actually uses those.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Kind regards,</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Remco van Mook<BR><BR>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>On Tue, May 18, 2010 at 8:24 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed <SPAN
dir=ltr><<A href="mailto:ahmed@tamkien.com">ahmed@tamkien.com</A>></SPAN>
wrote:<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex"
class=gmail_quote>
<DIV style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px"
name="Compose message area">
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Good day;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Looking at the IPv4 depletion statistics, it looks
like some countries in the MENOG region are in a more critical
situation.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>The latest data show the IANA IPv4 depletion date
varying between March 2011 (aggressive prediction, <A
title="http://ipv4depletion.com/ CTRL + Click to follow link"
href="http://ipv4depletion.com/" target=_blank>http://ipv4depletion.com/</A>)
and August 2011 (conservative, <A
title="http://www.ipv6forum.org CTRL + Click to follow link"
href="http://www.ipv6forum.org" target=_blank>www.ipv6forum.org</A> ) . In
other words, we are only <EM>10 to 15 months away</EM> from start
of depletion.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Geoff Huston, APNIC Researcher and Scientist,
publishes IPv4 stats on all countries. A snap shot is shown below, and I only
included a few MENOG countries as well as 3 non-MENOG members for comparison.
If there is demand for the full Excel spreadsheet I can send it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Note that Egypt and Jordan are using more than 90% of
their allocated IPv4 addresses (I.e. /32s) to date. Jordan, being a RIPE
region member, will probably have more difficulty in getting new allocations
as RIPE has one of the higher burn rates.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>One can only say its time to act on offering IPv6 to
subscribers. And this needs significant work on the core, OSS/BSS,
international gateway as well as access systems.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Calibri>-Ahmed</FONT><FONT face=Calibri>
<TABLE border=0 rules=none cellSpacing=0 frame=void cols=10>
<COLGROUP>
<COL width=212>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94>
<COL width=94></COLGROUP>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD height=17 width=212 align=left><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=right><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=right><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=right><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=right><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=left><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=left><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=left><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=left><BR></TD>
<TD width=94 align=left><BR></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 0. cc code</TD>
<TD align=right>US</TD>
<TD align=right>JP</TD>
<TD align=right>GB</TD>
<TD align=right>EG</TD>
<TD align=right>SA</TD>
<TD align=right>AE</TD>
<TD align=right>JO</TD>
<TD align=right>LB</TD>
<TD align=right>SY</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 1. allocated /32s</TD>
<TD align=right>1506717952</TD>
<TD align=right>181588480</TD>
<TD align=right>75618072</TD>
<TD align=right>4842496</TD>
<TD align=right>3119104</TD>
<TD align=right>2282752</TD>
<TD align=right>415744</TD>
<TD align=right>397056</TD>
<TD align=right>472064</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 2. % V4 pool</TD>
<TD align=right>35.08%</TD>
<TD align=right>4.23%</TD>
<TD align=right>1.76%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.11%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.07%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.05%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.01%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.01%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.01%</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 3. % Allocated /32s</TD>
<TD align=right>49.08%</TD>
<TD align=right>5.92%</TD>
<TD align=right>2.46%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.16%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.10%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.07%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.01%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.01%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.02%</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 4. /32s per user</TD>
<TD align=right>6.37</TD>
<TD align=right>1.9</TD>
<TD align=right>1.62</TD>
<TD align=right>0.27</TD>
<TD align=right>0.4</TD>
<TD align=right>0.62</TD>
<TD align=right>0.25</TD>
<TD align=right>0.42</TD>
<TD align=right>0.14</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 5. /32s per capita</TD>
<TD align=right>4.86</TD>
<TD align=right>1.43</TD>
<TD align=right>1.23</TD>
<TD align=right>0.06</TD>
<TD align=right>0.11</TD>
<TD align=right>0.46</TD>
<TD align=right>0.06</TD>
<TD align=right>0.1</TD>
<TD align=right>0.02</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 6. advertised /32s</TD>
<TD align=right>617060288</TD>
<TD align=right>113143701</TD>
<TD align=right>53255744</TD>
<TD align=right>4717312</TD>
<TD align=right>2616832</TD>
<TD align=right>2011136</TD>
<TD align=right>386560</TD>
<TD align=right>250368</TD>
<TD align=right>363520</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 height=17 align=left># 7. % cc allocated /32s</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>40.95%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>62.31%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>70.43%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>97.41%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>83.90%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>88.10%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>92.98%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>63.06%</TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffff00 align=right>77.01%</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 8. % Advertised /32s</TD>
<TD align=right>36.15%</TD>
<TD align=right>6.63%</TD>
<TD align=right>3.12%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.28%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.15%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.12%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.02%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.01%</TD>
<TD align=right>0.02%</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 9. Adv /32s per user</TD>
<TD align=right>2.61</TD>
<TD align=right>1.18</TD>
<TD align=right>1.14</TD>
<TD align=right>0.27</TD>
<TD align=right>0.33</TD>
<TD align=right>0.55</TD>
<TD align=right>0.24</TD>
<TD align=right>0.26</TD>
<TD align=right>0.11</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 10. Adv /32 per capita</TD>
<TD align=right>1.99</TD>
<TD align=right>0.89</TD>
<TD align=right>0.87</TD>
<TD align=right>0.06</TD>
<TD align=right>0.09</TD>
<TD align=right>0.41</TD>
<TD align=right>0.06</TD>
<TD align=right>0.06</TD>
<TD align=right>0.02</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 11. unadvertised /32s</TD>
<TD align=right>889657664</TD>
<TD align=right>68444779</TD>
<TD align=right>22362328</TD>
<TD align=right>125184</TD>
<TD align=right>502272</TD>
<TD align=right>271616</TD>
<TD align=right>29184</TD>
<TD align=right>146688</TD>
<TD align=right>108544</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 16. users</TD>
<TD align=right>236410494</TD>
<TD align=right>95785082</TD>
<TD align=right>46804746</TD>
<TD align=right>17781752</TD>
<TD align=right>7899772</TD>
<TD align=right>3670350</TD>
<TD align=right>1642931</TD>
<TD align=right>953175</TD>
<TD align=right>3370875</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 17. population</TD>
<TD align=right>309843374</TD>
<TD align=right>126867659</TD>
<TD align=right>61262757</TD>
<TD align=right>84273708</TD>
<TD align=right>29150453</TD>
<TD align=right>4953240</TD>
<TD align=right>6468233</TD>
<TD align=right>4056065</TD>
<TD align=right>20554120</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 20. cc num</TD>
<TD align=right>840</TD>
<TD align=right>392</TD>
<TD align=right>826</TD>
<TD align=right>818</TD>
<TD align=right>682</TD>
<TD align=right>784</TD>
<TD align=right>400</TD>
<TD align=right>422</TD>
<TD align=right>760</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 21. region num</TD>
<TD align=right>21</TD>
<TD align=right>30</TD>
<TD align=right>154</TD>
<TD align=right>15</TD>
<TD align=right>145</TD>
<TD align=right>145</TD>
<TD align=right>145</TD>
<TD align=right>145</TD>
<TD align=right>145</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left># 23. cc name</TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>USA</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>Japan</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>UK</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>Egypt</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>Saudi Arabia</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>UAE</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>Jordan</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>Lebanon</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=right><B><FONT color=#b84747>Syria</FONT></B></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left><B><FONT size=1>IPv4 Resource Allocations as of
May 17th 2010</FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=17 align=left><B><FONT size=1><A
href="http://bgp.potaroo.net/iso3166/v4cc.html" target=_blank>Source:
Reformatted to .XLS from http://bgp.potaroo.net/iso3166/v4cc.html
</A></FONT></B></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=middle><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD>
<TD align=left><BR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
face=Calibri></FONT> </DIV></DIV><BR>_______________________________________________<BR>Menog
mailing list<BR><A href="mailto:Menog@menog.net">Menog@menog.net</A><BR><A
href="http://lists.menog.net/mailman/listinfo/menog"
target=_blank>http://lists.menog.net/mailman/listinfo/menog</A><BR><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV><BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>