<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">I don't think that is accurate at all.<div><br></div><div>1.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>As soon as anyone is out and forced to start deploying customers without</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>native IPv4 (if said customers have IPv4 at all, it's through LSN/DS-Lite/NAT64)</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>you have a situation where the user experience for your customers trying to</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>reach those customers is degraded if you aren't providing IPv6.</div><div><br></div><div>2.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>It will take most network operators at least 6 months and probably more like</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>18 months to get from starting to deploy IPv6 on their backbones to being</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>able to roll it out to the majority of their customers. Arguably if there's 6</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>months until you have to have IPv6 to your customers, you needed to start</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>12 months ago just to be on schedule.</div><div><br></div><div>3.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>I expect RIPE will be the next RIR to run out. I expect they will run out</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>probably around June or July. That's not 6 months and that's where</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>most of the middle east gets their addresses.</div><div><br></div><div>4.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>I'm not sure what you mean by "we are the last". I'm not familiar enough</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>with your network to apply the proper context, so, perhaps in some way</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>you may have 6 months before you face it in your own environment, but,</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>what about your user's ability to reach other environments and/or the</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>ability for users in other environments to have a good experience</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>reaching yours?</div><div><br></div><div>5.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>The organization who gets the last allocation in each RIR has a slight advantage</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>over all the organizations who were in line behind them because they have</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>enough IPv4 addresses to meet their needs for some (limited) amount</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>of time whereas the others have no supply of addresses available to them.</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>Using that advantage as an excuse to delay your IPv6 deployment is,</div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>IMHO, both short-sighted and self-destructive.</div><div><br></div><div>Owen</div><div><br></div><div><div><div>On Apr 16, 2011, at 6:53 AM, Lu Heng wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite">well, we are the last, we still have another 6 month to go before face it, correct me if I was wrong.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 2:56 PM, Owen DeLong <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:owend@he.net">owend@he.net</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;"><div style="word-wrap:break-word">Well said.<div><br></div><div>Owen</div><div><br></div><div><div><div><div></div><div class="h5">
<div>On Apr 16, 2011, at 2:06 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote:</div><br></div></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div></div><div class="h5">
<div style="padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px;padding-top:15px" name="Compose message area">
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Dear colleagues,</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">APNIC, the IP address registry for the
region stretching from Pakistan to Japan and down to Australia/NZ,
announced yesterday it has reached the final /8 IPv4 address block, which
is practical IPv4 depletion for most ISPs.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">From now on APNIC will highly
restrict the amounts of IPv4 addresses it issues, with ONLY one block 1024
addresses per ISP, and this will be the <em>last</em> IPv4 address block given
to each ISP.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Expect IPv6 only services to start come
up, <em>so even if you have enough IPv4</em> <em>addresses</em> or thinking
of implementing an IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT in your network, you will
still need to start IPv6 migration all the way to the
subscribers.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">The Middle East's address registry, RIPE
NCC, is expected to reach a similar situation soon when RIPE reaches its final
/8.</font></div></font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Best Regards,</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">-Ahmed</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri">Ahmed Abu-Abed, <font size="2">P.Eng.</font><br>VP, IPv6
Forum Jordan</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri">GSM +962 777 669 100</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"><a title="http://www.ipv6forum.org
CTRL + Click to follow link" href="http://www.ipv6forum.org/" target="_blank">www.ipv6forum.org</a> </font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"> </font></div><font face="Calibri"></font></div></div></div>
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<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div>--</div><div>Kind regards.</div><div><br></div><div>Lu</div><div><br></div><div><br></div>This message is a private communication. It may contain information that is privileged or confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not read, copy, or use it, and do not disclose it to others. Please notify the sender of the delivery error by replying to this message, and then delete it and any attachments from your system. Use of this e-mail is prohibited when received in error. Thank you.<br>
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