<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Ripe has 3.93. AfriNIC has 3.92, LACNIC has 3.94, and ARIN has 8+.<div><br></div><div>Given that, combined with the likely portability of APNIC demand to the</div><div>RIPE region, I don't think RiPE community is last, I think you are next.</div><div><br></div><div>(I think APNIC demand will also be somewhat portable to ARIN region</div><div>as well and accelerate consumption there).</div><div><br></div><div>Pure IPv6 may or may not be practical, but, the reality is that if you can't</div><div>get IPv4, you don't really have a lot of choices. Frankly, I agree that</div><div>deprecating IPv4 will probably not start until at least 2015. That's not</div><div>what this is about. What this is about is what portion of continued</div><div>and sustained internet growth can include real IPv4 connectivity</div><div>and for how long.</div><div><br></div><div>There's a wall right in front of us. We're continuing to step harder on the</div><div>gas pedal and lots of people seem to be pretending the wall isn't there</div><div>just because it disappears when they close their eyes.</div><div><br></div><div>IPv6 is fairly easy to deploy along side IPv4. Yes, there are issues, but,</div><div>the sonner you deploy IPv6, the fewer issues you will have and the sooner</div><div>you will get them identified and resolved.</div><div><br></div><div>Owen</div><div><br></div><div><div><div>On Apr 16, 2011, at 8:40 AM, Lu Heng wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite">Hi...."we" means RIPE community.<a href="http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html">http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html</a>. It shows RIPE still have 4 /8 at this moment. While it still has second most amount RIRs.<div>
<br></div><div>IPv6 was not that easy, pure IPv6 environment is still not practical at this time, as small ISP, we tested just few days ago with pure IPv6 with few customers, but the thing is, it just not practical in the real world now. Many discussion around how and when IPv4 will become history, most of my college would agree later 2015 as earliest.</div>
<div><br></div><div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 4:18 PM, Owen DeLong <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:owend@he.net">owend@he.net</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;">
<div style="word-wrap:break-word">I don't think that is accurate at all.<div><br></div><div>1.<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>As soon as anyone is out and forced to start deploying customers without</div><div>
<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>native IPv4 (if said customers have IPv4 at all, it's through LSN/DS-Lite/NAT64)</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>you have a situation where the user experience for your customers trying to</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>reach those customers is degraded if you aren't providing IPv6.</div><div><br></div><div>2.<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>It will take most network operators at least 6 months and probably more like</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>18 months to get from starting to deploy IPv6 on their backbones to being</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>able to roll it out to the majority of their customers. Arguably if there's 6</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>months until you have to have IPv6 to your customers, you needed to start</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>12 months ago just to be on schedule.</div><div>
<br></div><div>3.<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>I expect RIPE will be the next RIR to run out. I expect they will run out</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>probably around June or July. That's not 6 months and that's where</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>most of the middle east gets their addresses.</div><div><br></div><div>4.<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>I'm not sure what you mean by "we are the last". I'm not familiar enough</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>with your network to apply the proper context, so, perhaps in some way</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>you may have 6 months before you face it in your own environment, but,</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>what about your user's ability to reach other environments and/or the</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>ability for users in other environments to have a good experience</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>reaching yours?</div><div><br></div><div>5.<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>The organization who gets the last allocation in each RIR has a slight advantage</div><div>
<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>over all the organizations who were in line behind them because they have</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>enough IPv4 addresses to meet their needs for some (limited) amount</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>of time whereas the others have no supply of addresses available to them.</div><div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>Using that advantage as an excuse to delay your IPv6 deployment is,</div>
<div><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>IMHO, both short-sighted and self-destructive.</div><div><br></div><font color="#888888"><div>Owen</div></font><div><div></div><div class="h5"><div><br></div><div><div><div>
On Apr 16, 2011, at 6:53 AM, Lu Heng wrote:</div><br><blockquote type="cite">well, we are the last, we still have another 6 month to go before face it, correct me if I was wrong.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 2:56 PM, Owen DeLong <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:owend@he.net" target="_blank">owend@he.net</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div style="word-wrap:break-word">Well said.<div><br></div><div>Owen</div><div><br></div><div><div><div><div></div><div>
<div>On Apr 16, 2011, at 2:06 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote:</div><br></div></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div></div><div>
<div style="padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px;padding-top:15px" name="Compose message area">
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Dear colleagues,</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">APNIC, the IP address registry for the
region stretching from Pakistan to Japan and down to Australia/NZ,
announced yesterday it has reached the final /8 IPv4 address block, which
is practical IPv4 depletion for most ISPs.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">From now on APNIC will highly
restrict the amounts of IPv4 addresses it issues, with ONLY one block 1024
addresses per ISP, and this will be the <em>last</em> IPv4 address block given
to each ISP.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Expect IPv6 only services to start come
up, <em>so even if you have enough IPv4</em> <em>addresses</em> or thinking
of implementing an IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT in your network, you will
still need to start IPv6 migration all the way to the
subscribers.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">The Middle East's address registry, RIPE
NCC, is expected to reach a similar situation soon when RIPE reaches its final
/8.</font></div></font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Best Regards,</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">-Ahmed</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri">Ahmed Abu-Abed, <font size="2">P.Eng.</font><br>VP, IPv6
Forum Jordan</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri">GSM +962 777 669 100</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"><a title="http://www.ipv6forum.org
CTRL + Click to follow link" href="http://www.ipv6forum.org/" target="_blank">www.ipv6forum.org</a> </font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"> </font></div><font face="Calibri"></font></div></div></div>
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<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div>--</div><div>Kind regards.</div><div><br></div><div>Lu</div><div><br></div><div><br></div>This message is a private communication. It may contain information that is privileged or confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not read, copy, or use it, and do not disclose it to others. Please notify the sender of the delivery error by replying to this message, and then delete it and any attachments from your system. Use of this e-mail is prohibited when received in error. Thank you.<br>
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