<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><br><div><div>On Apr 16, 2011, at 11:40 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite">
<div style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px" id="MailContainerBody" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" canvastabstop="true" name="Compose message area">
<div><font face="Calibri">A few observations,</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri">a. RIPE is next, but the date is currently unpredictable
as we are in a unique situation where both IANA and APNIC pools are
depleted, an unprecedented event, and the effect of this is unknown.
It could be as early as June 2011 or as late as Q1 2012. </font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div></div></blockquote>I would argue that if you follow previous allocation rates, it comes pretty close to July 2011. If it accelerates (as it did in APNIC</div><div>region), that could be significantly earlier. I'm not sure what you think about the current unique situation would possibly cause</div><div>the consumption rate to slow so much as to move the date out to next year.</div><div><br></div><div>Finally, remember, Geoff's rather rosy predictions make no allowance whatsoever for the portability of demand. (The ability</div><div>of organizations with presence in multiple regions to obtain addresses from any or all of the applicable registries).</div><div><br></div><div><blockquote type="cite"><div style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px" id="MailContainerBody" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" canvastabstop="true" name="Compose message area"><div><font face="Calibri">b. RIPE's pool of available IPv4 addresses is shown
below, but note that practical depletion happens once RIPE reaches
16.7 million addresses as this means they hit the last /8 block which has
extremely restricted allocation policies (like APNIC):</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"><a title="http://www.ripe.net/internet-coordination/ipv4-exhaustion/ipv4-available-pool-graph
CTRL + Click to follow link" href="http://www.ripe.net/internet-coordination/ipv4-exhaustion/ipv4-available-pool-graph">http://www.ripe.net/internet-coordination/ipv4-exhaustion/ipv4-available-pool-graph</a></font></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div>Right... I'll also note that APNIC's current depletion state is exactly that. This merely reduces the amount of space</div><div>that needs to be consumed before referring to RIPE as exhausted from 3.93 to 2.93 /8s worth of space.<br><blockquote type="cite"><div style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px" id="MailContainerBody" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" canvastabstop="true" name="Compose message area"><div> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri">c. IPv6 deployment at the ISP needs to be done a
phased approach. First the core & connectivity, then provide access over
tunneling to end users, then work on the rest of the network to get it
dual-stack end-to-end. In the meantime if IPv4s are in short supply
(depends on the ISP) then a parallel project is needed to phase out
dependency on public IPv4s consumption by end users.</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div></div></blockquote>All of this is certainly a logical approach. However, I think that if ISPs are not already moving aggressively on such an approach, then, it is</div><div>likely to get overtaken by events which will, in turn, cause significant disruption.<br><blockquote type="cite"><div style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px" id="MailContainerBody" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" canvastabstop="true" name="Compose message area">
<div><font face="Calibri">d. Migrating from IPv4 to IPv6 and running both IP
stacks in parallel, while having an upcoming shortage of IPv4 and a lot of IPv4
content and websites, is not the same as implementing pure IPv6. It is a more
complex job which needs careful planning by the ISP. </font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div></div></blockquote>I don't agree that it is more complex than running pure IPv6 in the current environment. I do agree that it is more complex that running</div><div>IPv6 alone in an idealized environment where there are not any important IPv4 only resources remaining, but, unfortunately, the large</div><div>number of multilateral dependencies involved in changing from the current situation to that situation makes me think that will take</div><div>a substantial amount of time.</div><div><br></div><div>Failing to provide IPv4 access services of some form will likely be considered an unacceptable business decision by most ISPs.</div><div><br></div><div>However, failing to at least add IPv6 capabilities will also become an untenable business decision fairly soon. The difference is</div><div>that IPv4 is a well understood and highly visible requirement now. IPv6 is writing on the walls, but, not everyone reads it the</div><div>same way as yet. I postulate that if you wait until you are losing customers for failing to deploy IPv6, you are likely to have suffered</div><div>a pretty serious impact to your business by the time you can deploy it.</div><div><br></div><div><blockquote type="cite"><div style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px" id="MailContainerBody" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" canvastabstop="true" name="Compose message area">
<div><font face="Calibri">Depletion is real and is happening all around us. ISPs
need to start v6 migration now, dedicate staff and funding, and implement a
phased approach. </font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div>We agree on virtually every point here. I think the only place where we have some difference is in the level of urgency and the perspective</div><div>on how quickly some of these "phases" may e overtaken by external events.</div><div><br></div><div>Owen</div><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px" id="MailContainerBody" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" canvastabstop="true" name="Compose message area"><div> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri">Regards,</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri">-Ahmed</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font><br></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt Tahoma">
<div style="BACKGROUND: #f5f5f5">
<div style="font-color: black"><b>From:</b> <a title="h.lu@anytimechinese.com" href="mailto:h.lu@anytimechinese.com">Lu Heng</a> </div>
<div><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, April 16, 2011 6:40 PM</div>
<div><b>To:</b> <a title="owend@he.net" href="mailto:owend@he.net">Owen DeLong</a>
</div>
<div><b>Cc:</b> <a title="ahmed@tamkien.com" href="mailto:ahmed@tamkien.com">Ahmed
Abu-Abed</a> ; <a title="menog@menog.net" href="mailto:menog@menog.%20net">menog@menog. net</a> </div>
<div><b>Subject:</b> Re: [menog] Asia-Pacific IPv4 address depletion, Middle
East next</div></div></div>
<div><br></div>Hi...."we" means RIPE community.<a title="http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html
CTRL + Click to follow link" href="http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html">http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html</a>. It
shows RIPE still have 4 /8 at this moment. While it still has second most amount
RIRs.
<div><br></div>
<div>IPv6 was not that easy, pure IPv6 environment is still not
practical at this time, as small ISP, we tested just few days ago with pure IPv6
with few customers, but the thing is, it just not practical in the real world
now. Many discussion around how and when IPv4 will become history, most of
my college would agree later 2015 as earliest.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><br><br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 4:18 PM, Owen DeLong <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:owend@he.net">owend@he.net</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote style="BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex" class="gmail_quote">
<div style="WORD-WRAP: break-word">I don't think that is accurate at all.
<div><br></div>
<div>1.<span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"> </span>As soon as anyone is out
and forced to start deploying customers without</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>native IPv4 (if said customers
have IPv4 at all, it's through LSN/DS-Lite/NAT64)</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>you have a situation where the
user experience for your customers trying to</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>reach those customers is
degraded if you aren't providing IPv6.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>2.<span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"> </span>It will take most network
operators at least 6 months and probably more like</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>18 months to get from starting
to deploy IPv6 on their backbones to being</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>able to roll it out to the
majority of their customers. Arguably if there's 6</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>months until you have to have
IPv6 to your customers, you needed to start</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>12 months ago just to be on
schedule.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>3.<span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"> </span>I expect RIPE will be the
next RIR to run out. I expect they will run out</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>probably around June or July.
That's not 6 months and that's where</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>most of the middle east gets
their addresses.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>4.<span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"> </span>I'm not sure what you mean
by "we are the last". I'm not familiar enough</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>with your network to apply the
proper context, so, perhaps in some way</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>you may have 6 months before
you face it in your own environment, but,</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>what about your user's ability
to reach other environments and/or the</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>ability for users in other
environments to have a good experience</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>reaching yours?</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>5.<span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"> </span>The organization who gets
the last allocation in each RIR has a slight advantage</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>over all the organizations who
were in line behind them because they have</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>enough IPv4 addresses to meet
their needs for some (limited) amount</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>of time whereas the others
have no supply of addresses available to them.</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>Using that advantage as an
excuse to delay your IPv6 deployment is,</div>
<div><span style="WHITE-SPACE: pre-wrap"></span>IMHO, both short-sighted and
self-destructive.</div>
<div><br></div><font color="#888888">
<div>Owen</div></font>
<div>
<div></div>
<div class="h5">
<div><br></div>
<div>
<div>
<div>On Apr 16, 2011, at 6:53 AM, Lu Heng wrote:</div><br>
<blockquote type="cite">well, we are the last, we still have another 6 month
to go before face it, correct me if I was wrong.<br><br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 2:56 PM, Owen DeLong <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:owend@he.net" target="_blank">owend@he.net</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote style="BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex" class="gmail_quote">
<div style="WORD-WRAP: break-word">Well said.
<div><br></div>
<div>Owen</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div></div>
<div>
<div>On Apr 16, 2011, at 2:06 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed
wrote:</div><br></div></div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>
<div></div>
<div>
<div style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 15px" name="Compose message area">
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Dear colleagues,</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">APNIC, the IP address registry for
the region stretching from Pakistan to Japan and down to
Australia/NZ, announced yesterday it has reached the final /8 IPv4
address block, which is practical IPv4 depletion for most
ISPs.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">From now on APNIC will highly
restrict the amounts of IPv4 addresses it issues, with ONLY one block
1024 addresses per ISP, and this will be the <em>last</em> IPv4 address
block given to each ISP.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Expect IPv6 only services to start
come up, <em>so even if you have enough
IPv4</em> <em>addresses</em> or thinking of implementing
an IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT in your network, you will still need
to start IPv6 migration all the way to the
subscribers.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">The Middle East's address
registry, RIPE NCC, is expected to reach a similar situation soon when
RIPE reaches its final /8.</font></div></font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">Best Regards,</font></div>
<div><font color="#000080" face="Calibri">-Ahmed</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Calibri">Ahmed Abu-Abed, <font size="2">P.Eng.</font><br>VP, IPv6 Forum Jordan</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri">GSM +962 777 669 100</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"><a title="http://www.ipv6forum.org
CTRL + Click to follow link" href="http://www.ipv6forum.org/" target="_blank">www.ipv6forum.org</a>
</font></div>
<div><font face="Calibri"></font> </div><font face="Calibri"></font></div></div></div>_______________________________________________<br>Menog
mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Menog@menog.net" target="_blank">Menog@menog.net</a><br><a href="http://lists.menog.net/mailman/listinfo/menog" target="_blank">http://lists.menog.net/mailman/listinfo/menog</a><br></blockquote></div><br></div></div><br>_______________________________________________<br>Menog
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<div>--</div>
<div>Kind regards.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Lu</div>
<div><br></div>
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<div>--</div>
<div>Kind regards.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Lu</div>
<div><br></div>
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