[menog] ADSL Service Provider Bandwidth Forecasting

[Hameed Al-Yahibi]

Please remove my email from
This conversation

    With best regards

    Hameed Alyahibi

        Www.nstt.net
          Www.Gtsc.ae
         Www.4ntel.com
         Www.iccsat.com
         Www.100call.com
       Www.yonderme.com



Sent from my iPhone


On 14 Mar 2010, at 00:44, "Paolo Lucente" <pl+list at pmacct.net> wrote:

> Agree with Nigel.
>
> * Having already some subscribers onboard, monitor the current
>  scenario. Depending on the exercise (see point below) simple
>  aggregate bandwidth statistics can be also sufficient. But
>  one might want to resort to something like NetFlow or sFlow.
>
> * The key exercise here is to figure out an average effective
>  bandwidth usage per subscriber. This can be done precisely as
>  Nigel described - coarse grained - or by adding variables:
>  for example because it can be expected different distribution
>  of customers/offered DSL speeds across regions/areas/exchanges
>  and hence know how the bandwidth value changes by changing the
>  mix.
>
> * Design bandwidth requirements around your peak hour. Set (or
>  recall if already defined within the company) a threshold of
>  "when to upgrade" a backbone link. Accepted thresholds are in
>  the area 60-80% (matter of personal and technical details) but
>  it can also vary due to organizational matters: growth rate vs
>  lead time for upgrading all the components involved.
>
> * The contention ratio in this scheme becomes a derived value.
>  Or the ratio between the average effective bandwidth usage
>  and the offered (nominal) capacity. Of course, a third element
>  can be introduced: the guaranteed bandwidth rate - ie. adjust
>  upward (or downward) the average effective bandwidth usage. In
>  this case the contention ratio will be calculated between the
>  guaranteed rate and the offered capacity.
>
> * ADSL is asymmetric whereas the backhaul will likely be symmetric;
>  it intuitively means the design revolves around only the greatest
>  component - the downstream bandwidth.
>
> Regards,
> Paolo
>
>
> On Sat, Mar 13, 2010 at 06:58:59PM +0000, Nigel Titley wrote:
>> Kiyam,
>>
>>> From experience in operating a fairly large ADSL user base in the  
>>> UK, we
>> estimate 19Kb per naive user and 38kb per "power user". We get this
>> figure simply by taking the peak total bandwidth over a month and
>> dividing by the number of customers. This should enable you to work  
>> out
>> your bandwidth requirement given a sales forecast. We operate an
>> effectively uncontended network (ie if we see congestion, we upgrade
>> bandwidth).
>>
>> Does this help?
>>
>> Nigel
>>
>> Yasser Ragab wrote:
>>> Please mention how many subscribers per each packages and what is  
>>> the
>>> contention ratio that you use?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Best Regards,
>>>
>>> Yasser Omar.
>>>
>>> 2Connect w.l.l
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --- 
>>> --- 
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>> *From:* menog-bounces at menog.net [mailto:menog-bounces at menog.net] *On
>>> Behalf Of *Kiyam Kadir
>>> *Sent:* Saturday, 13 March 2010 8:35 PM
>>> *To:* amr.essam at tedata.net; amaged at gmail.com; menog-bounces at menog.net 
>>> ;
>>> menog at menog.net
>>> *Subject:* RE: [menog] ADSL Service Provider Bandwidth Forecasting
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> ladies and gentlemen,
>>>
>>> I apologize that I didn?t make my request clear.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> I was asking the exact mathematical formula or equation for how to
>>> calculate the bandwidth requirements.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> we have got 5 service classes ranging from 256kbps up to 3mbps
>>> downstream and 128kbps up to 768kbps upstream.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> now we have got around 10k subscribers and I would like to know  
>>> what is
>>> best practice in your companies like if the CIO was
>>>
>>> asked how much bandwidth he/she requests the management to  
>>> provide, in
>>> order to give these users a reasonable contention ratio and
>>>
>>> browsing experience.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Please do not make any comments on the given bandwidths as we are in
>>> Iraq and internet resources are still difficult to get. I know  
>>> that in
>>> Sweden
>>>
>>> people are having about 1gbps internet but yet we are in Iraq.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Thank you
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Best regards,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Kiyam Kadir
>>>
>>> Goran Net ISP
>>>
>>> Business Development Manager
>>>
>>> EMail: kiyam at gorannet.net <mailto:kiyam at gorannet.net>
>>>
>>> Tel: 00964 (0) 770 2 666 666
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* Amr Essam [mailto:amr.essam at tedata.net]
>>> *Sent:* Saturday, March 13, 2010 19:58
>>> *To:* amaged at gmail.com; Kiyam Kadir; menog-bounces at menog.net;
>>> menog at menog.net
>>> *Subject:* Re: [menog] ADSL Service Provider Bandwidth Forecasting
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Dears,
>>>
>>> I agree with what Ahmed said, in addition that there should be a
>>> targeted plan from the company to reach certain number of customers
>>> planned on different locations, the plan should include customers  
>>> with
>>> different speeds, and upon this you start to check capacity of the
>>> locations to increase the BW, usual forecasts comes out in a 3 to 5
>>> years plan but I assume yearly plan for targeted number of xdsl
>>> ports/clients.
>>>
>>> --
>>> Amr Essam
>>> TE Data
>>>
>>> --- 
>>> --- 
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>> *From: *amaged at gmail.com
>>>
>>> *Date: *Sat, 13 Mar 2010 15:17:13 +0000
>>>
>>> *To: *Kiyam Kadir<kiyam at gorannet.net>; <menog-bounces at menog.net>;
>>> <menog at menog.net>
>>>
>>> *Subject: *Re: [menog] ADSL Service Provider Bandwidth Forecasting
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear Kiyam,
>>>
>>> Based on reports coming from their commercial team on the  
>>> subscribers
>>> rate of increase during the previous year.
>>>
>>> Regards,
>>> Ahmed Maged
>>>
>>> Sent from my BlackBerry? wireless handheld
>>>
>>> --- 
>>> --- 
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>> *From: *"Kiyam Kadir" <kiyam at gorannet.net>
>>>
>>> *Date: *Sat, 13 Mar 2010 17:17:51 +0300
>>>
>>> *To: *<menog at menog.net>
>>>
>>> *Subject: *[menog] ADSL Service Provider Bandwidth Forecasting
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear ladies and gentlemen,
>>>
>>> can anyone of you point me in the right direction on how a xDSL  
>>> service
>>> provider forecasts bandwidth upgrades, calculates future  
>>> requirements
>>> and bandwidth
>>>
>>> contention ratio calculations ?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> any help is appreciated.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> PS: Should Philip see this email I would appreciate if he can  
>>> point me
>>> in the right direction to read this in his book or at least write
>>> something about and put it in his book.
>>>
>>> J
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> thank you in advance.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Thank you
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Best regards,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Kiyam Kadir
>>>
>>> Goran Net ISP
>>>
>>> Business Development Manager
>>>
>>> EMail: kiyam at gorannet.net <mailto:kiyam at gorannet.net>
>>>
>>> Tel: 00964 (0) 770 2 666 666
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>