[menog] ADSL Service Provider Bandwidth Forecasting

Scott Weeks surfer at mauigateway.com
Sun Mar 14 20:26:43 GMT 2010

From: kiyam at gorannet.net

I was asking the exact mathematical formula or equation for how to calculate the bandwidth

From: Umair Mansoor <umairbinmansoor at hotmail.com>

Apart from the math, the cheapest way would be to monitor congestion.
How much time it took to reach there since the last upgrade and that’s it. You
can now speculate statistically while considering the subscription rate in
order to upgrade the bandwidth. At the end of the day, as Jim said, all that
matters is how well your customers are prioritized.

I have to agree with Umair.  I would say that even if you were to apply some mathematical formula, that it will be constantly changing due to customer's changing internet habits.  The best way is to use empirical data and extrapolation.  One thing I notice is on a yearly graph of traffic long-term trends can be easily seen for estimating the next year's needs.  You could almost lay out a ruler on the traffic growth over the past year and estimate what you'll need in the next year as it is, for us, a growth pattern that is almost completely linear.  

This is dependent on the makeup of your users, though.  We're a residential DSL subscriber network with some large customers.  The DSL subscribers peak traffic is between 8pm and 11pm, while the large customers are businesses and their peak is during business hours. 


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