[menog] IPv4 depletion update

Tue May 18 12:23:56 GMT 2010

Hi Remco,

Thanks for your feedback. No one is sure yet how long RIPE NCC will have v4 address blocks; it's a matter of speculation and depends on factors that we have not yet gone thru before (last minute rush, increase in uptake rate due to LTE, etc.). But we can predict the IANA depletion date, hence my message.

For the 4 countries you mention the utilization rate varies from 75% to 92%, with the highest being for the Netherlands.  So there will be demand for limited resources within RIPE. Unfortunately there is no way to predict the depletion on a country by country basis (no framework exists for collecting and sharing LIR data for address block utilization as far as I know ), but all indications/predictions I have seen say RIR depletion should be by 2012, and probably as early as the first half.

As for the IPv6 resources discussion at the RIPE meeting, having an address block and connectivity is a step in the right direction. But these are the easier parts of the transition, while enabling the core, edge and access, then providing the v6 service (without the need of a public v4 address), plus porting the applications, needs a lot more work and time. 

If the ability to offer IPv6 native access (and coexist with v4 using private v4 addresses) can be measured by the RIR then this will be a more accurate prediction of readiness. A large US based ISP recently mentioned, publicly, that it took them over 4 years to work on v6 transition to get to a stage to offer native IPv6 access trials.

Regards,
-Ahmed

From: remco van mook 
Sent: Tuesday, May 18, 2010 10:52 AM
To: Ahmed Abu-Abed 
Cc: menog at menog. net ; IPv6jordan 
Subject: Re: [menog] IPv4 depletion update

Dear Ahmed, 

I think you're reading this the wrong way. The amount of allocated IPv4 space per country is not a fixed number, but rather an aggregation of the blocks of space that have so far been allocated to the different ISPs inside of a country. Since we've not run out of IPv4 space, and it's likely that  the RIPE NCC will have space for at least 2 more years, that number doesn't really reflect anything else than a very commendable utilization rate of the resources allocated so far. On top of that, particularly the US and Japan numbers are skewed in a huge way because of the way IPv4 addresses were distributed until about 1995 (remember classfull routing?). Comparing numbers with for example France, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands would give you a far more apples-to-apples comparison.

I fully agree more action is called for when it comes to deploying IPv6 in the Middle East, but the simple graph that describes this was used at the RIPE meeting two weeks ago - it shows the percentage of ISPs per country that have IPv6 resources, and what percentage actually uses those.

Kind regards,

Remco van Mook

On Tue, May 18, 2010 at 8:24 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed <ahmed at tamkien.com> wrote:

  Good day;

  Looking at the IPv4 depletion statistics, it looks like some countries in the MENOG region are in a more critical situation.

  The latest data show the IANA IPv4 depletion date varying between March 2011 (aggressive prediction, http://ipv4depletion.com/) and August 2011 (conservative, www.ipv6forum.org ) . In other words, we are only 10 to 15 months away  from start of depletion.

  Geoff Huston, APNIC Researcher and Scientist, publishes IPv4 stats on all countries. A snap shot is shown below, and I only included a few MENOG countries as well as 3 non-MENOG members for comparison. If there is demand for the full Excel spreadsheet I can send it.

  Note that Egypt and Jordan are using more than 90% of their allocated IPv4 addresses (I.e. /32s) to date. Jordan, being a RIPE region member, will probably have more difficulty in getting new allocations as RIPE has one of the higher burn rates.

  One can only say its time to act on offering IPv6 to subscribers. And this needs significant work on the core, OSS/BSS, international gateway as well as access systems.

  Regards,
  -Ahmed  

        # 0. cc code US JP GB EG SA AE JO LB SY 
        # 1. allocated /32s 1506717952 181588480 75618072 4842496 3119104 2282752 415744 397056 472064 
        # 2. % V4 pool 35.08% 4.23% 1.76% 0.11% 0.07% 0.05% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 
        # 3. % Allocated /32s 49.08% 5.92% 2.46% 0.16% 0.10% 0.07% 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% 
        # 4. /32s per user 6.37 1.9 1.62 0.27 0.4 0.62 0.25 0.42 0.14 
        # 5. /32s per capita 4.86 1.43 1.23 0.06 0.11 0.46 0.06 0.1 0.02 
        # 6. advertised /32s 617060288 113143701 53255744 4717312 2616832 2011136 386560 250368 363520 
        # 7. % cc allocated /32s 40.95% 62.31% 70.43% 97.41% 83.90% 88.10% 92.98% 63.06% 77.01% 
        # 8. % Advertised /32s 36.15% 6.63% 3.12% 0.28% 0.15% 0.12% 0.02% 0.01% 0.02% 
        # 9. Adv /32s per user 2.61 1.18 1.14 0.27 0.33 0.55 0.24 0.26 0.11 
        # 10. Adv /32 per capita 1.99 0.89 0.87 0.06 0.09 0.41 0.06 0.06 0.02 
        # 11. unadvertised /32s 889657664 68444779 22362328 125184 502272 271616 29184 146688 108544 
        # 16. users 236410494 95785082 46804746 17781752 7899772 3670350 1642931 953175 3370875 
        # 17. population 309843374 126867659 61262757 84273708 29150453 4953240 6468233 4056065 20554120 
        # 20. cc num 840 392 826 818 682 784 400 422 760 
        # 21. region num 21 30 154 15 145 145 145 145 145 
        # 23. cc name USA Japan UK Egypt Saudi Arabia UAE Jordan Lebanon Syria 

        IPv4 Resource Allocations as of May 17th 2010 

        Source: Reformatted to .XLS from http://bgp.potaroo.net/iso3166/v4cc.html  

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